Bubble Watch: Mar. 3

Breaking news: There are only three weeks left in the regular season, which means it’s already time to think about postseason. As far as we know, regionals and nationals will be structured the same way as in 2019, so check out our explainer if you need a refresher on the rules.

As a reminder, NQS this year is different than usual thanks to the pandemic: the top four scores are averaged, with at least two of them being road scores. The high score is no longer dropped, which makes it difficult to project the highest possible NQS a team could achieve after an upcoming meet. So instead we’re going to project a team’s NQS if they tie their season high this weekend.

For the purposes of this article we’re assuming every team currently ranked in the top 20 will make it to the postseason ranked at least No. 28, since individual qualification begins with teams ranked No. 29. We’re also assuming Michigan will land comfortably in the top 10 once it finally receives its NQS this weekend.

Here’s a visual depiction of where each team ranked Nos. 21-45 finds itself going into week nine. Red is the team’s current NQS, blue is the season high score and yellow is the lowest score currently factoring into the NQS calculation. Teams with a wider spread among the three circles have more opportunity to increase their NQS over the next few weeks; teams with circles bunched together are unlikely to move up the rankings much unless they start scoring higher.

Now let’s dive into each team’s scenarios! We’ll also discuss individuals who have a chance at making regionals if their team does not finish in the top 28. All scores given for individuals are NQS unless otherwise noted.

No. 21 Ohio State

NQS 196.181
Season high 196.400
Score to replace this weekend 195.950
NQS with season high this weekend 196.294 (20th)
Road meets remaining 1
Home meets remaining 2

Vault: Elexis Edwards (9.844), Nicole Riccardi (9.819), Morgan Lowe (9.819)

Bars: Jenna Swartzentruber (9.888), Colby Miller (9.863)

Beam: Ella Hodges (9.888), Alexis Hankins (9.856), Emma Pritchard (9.831)

Floor: Claire Gagliardi (9.869), Alexis Hankins (9.856)

Ohio State is one of those teams with all its NQS-counting scores bunched close together, so in order to move up the rankings it’s going to need some new season highs. However, at No. 21, the Buckeyes are probably safe. Sunday’s home meet against Penn State has suddenly turned into a quad with Michigan and Rutgers joining in on the fun, so perhaps we’ll see some high scores flying that could propel a season high performance.

No. 22 Missouri

NQS 196.100
Season high 196.850
Score to replace this weekend 194.800
NQS with season high this weekend 196.613 (16th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 0

All Around: Sienna Schreiber (39.231), Amaya Marshall (39.025)

Vault: Gabrielle Gottula (9.838), Jena Swanson (9.825)

Bars: Sienna Schreiber (9.875), Amaya Marshall (9.838), Hollyn Patrick (9.825)

Beam: Sienna Schreiber (9.906), Alisa Sheremeta (9.881), Gabrielle Gottula (9.881)

Floor: Alisa Sheremeta (9.856), Hannah McCrary (9.850), Amaya Marshall (9.844), Jena Swanson (9.838)

Missouri is still counting a 194.800 road score, but thankfully both of its remaining meets are on the road so it’s in good position to drop that number. A season high-tying performance this weekend (at scoring-friendly LSU) would move the Tigers up to No. 16 in the current rankings.

No. 23 Iowa State

NQS 196.013
Season high 196.375
Score to replace this weekend 195.500
NQS with season high this weekend 196.231 (21st)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 2

All Around: Adnerys De Jesus (39.338)

Vault: Adnerys De Jesus (9.894), Sophia Steinmeyer (9.831), Makayla Maxwell (9.825), Kelsey Boychuk (9.813)

Bars: Adnerys De Jesus (9.850), Makayla Maxwell (9.831), Natalie Horowitz (9.825), Jade Vella-Wright (9.800)

Beam: Sophia Steinmeyer (9.806), Meixi Semple (9.806)

Floor: Maddie Diab (9.863), Adnerys De Jesus (9.844)

Iowa State made a big jump in the in-progress NQS standings following Monday’s season-high performance at home against West Virginia, allowing it to drop a 193.875. This weekend presents another opportunity to move up, with a 195.500 road score still to drop going into a quad meet at EMU. With four meets remaining overall, the Cyclones are likely to stay in the top 28 heading into the postseason.

No. 24 Oregon State

NQS 195.950
Season high 196.500
Score to replace this weekend 195.250
NQS with season high this weekend 196.263 (21st)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Kayla Bird (39.094), Madi Dagen (38.975), Kristina Peterson (39.300 high)

Vault: Madi Dagen (9.925), Kaitlyn Yanish (9.844), Sydney Gonzales (9.813)

Beam: Madi Dagen (9.906), Kristina Peterson (9.856), Sydney Gonzales (9.825), Jenna Domingo (9.819)

Floor: Kaitlyn Yanish (9.925), Kayla Bird (9.863), Madi Dagen (9.856), Kristina Peterson (9.850), Savanna Force (9.831)

Oregon State has recovered nicely from a season-opening 191.950 to place itself in regionals qualifying position with postseason around the corner. If the Beavers can replace a 195.250 with a 196-plus at home against Utah this weekend, they should solidify their position in the top 28 as well.

No. 25 Central Michigan

NQS 195.819
Season high 196.300
Score to replace this weekend 195.050
NQS with season high this weekend 196.131 (22nd)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Hannah Demers (39.150), Sierra Demarinis (39.106)

Vault: Katie Kowalski (9.863), Hannah Demers (9.844), Elizabeth Cesarone (9.806)

Bars: Hannah Demers (9.875), Kennedy Rae Johnson (9.813)

Beam: Morgan Tong (9.856)

Floor: Sierra Demarinis (9.900), Taylor Pitchell (9.869), Ashley Veglucci (9.844)

CMU has yet to break into the 196-plus territory on the road, but even just a high 195 this weekend would help the Chippewas fend off rising teams currently ranked below them by NQS. However, if they don’t remain in the top 28 by the end of the regular season, Hannah Demers will lead a talented group of individuals at regionals. 

No. 26 Western Michigan

NQS 195.769
Season high 196.050
Score to replace this weekend N/A (bye week)
NQS with season high this weekend N/A
Road meets remaining 1
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Payton Murphy (39.306), Sarah Moravansky (39.075)

Vault: Payton Murphy (9.819), Sarah Moravansky (9.813)

Bars: Sarah Moravansky (9.819), Alexis Olivier (9.819)

Beam: Payton Murphy (9.913), Charlotte Tishkoff (9.856)

Floor: Payton Murphy (9.894), Ronni Binstock (9.838), Stacie Harrison (9.831)

With two sub-196 scores still counting toward its NQS and only two opportunities remaining to replace them, WMU is in a precarious place entering a bye week and is unlikely to remain in the top 28 in next week’s rankings. However, Payton Murphy is a strong contender to qualify in the all around, with Charlotte Tishkoff also looking likely to qualify on beam. 

No. 27 Penn State

NQS 195.763
Season high 196.000
Score to replace this weekend 195.275
NQS with season high this weekend 195.944 (25th)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 0

All Around: Cassidy Rushlow (39.163)

Vault: Cassidy Rushlow (9.838), Alissa Bonsall (9.819)

Bars: Ava Verdeflor (9.881), Alissa Bonsall (9.875), Cassidy Rushlow (9.875)

Beam: Maddie Johnston (9.844), Natalie Cross (9.838)

Floor: Melissa Astarita (9.881), Alissa Bonsall (9.850), Cassidy Rushlow (9.850), Erynne Allen (9.831)

Penn State is in good position to drop its low 195.275 with three road meets remaining, but the remainder of its NQS scores are bunched between 195.850 and 196.000. To secure its place in the top 28, the Nittany Lions will need to set some new season highs. If they find themselves ranked lower, however, this talented roster will produce several individual qualifiers, with the most likely being Cassidy Rushlow, Alissa Bonsall, Ava Verdeflor and Melissa Astarita. 

No. 28 N.C. State

NQS 195.694
Season high 196.200
Score to replace this weekend 195.275
NQS with season high this weekend 195.988 (24th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Emily Shepard (39.206)

Vault: Emily Shepard (9.869), Chloe Negrete (9.856)

Bars: Emily Shepard (9.894), Katelyn Cox (9.869), Meredith Robinson (9.863)

Beam: Chloe Negrete (9.844)

Floor: Chloe Negrete (9.894), Emily Shepard (9.875)

N.C. State’s two counting road scores are significantly lower than its two counting home scores, so the Wolfpack will need to take advantage of its final two road meet opportunities of the season to remain in the top 28. If it doesn’t, Emily Shepard and Chloe Negrete will have no problem qualifying to regionals on multiple events, likely with Katelyn Cox and Meredith Robinson also joining on bars.

No. 29 Eastern Michigan

NQS 195.688
Season high 195.975
Score to replace this weekend 195.800
NQS with season high this weekend 195.731 (28th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

Bars: Cortney Bezold (9.869), Jada Rondeau (9.863)

Beam: Caitlin Satler (9.894), Jada Rondeau (9.863), Hadyn Crossen (9.838)

Floor: Karalyn Roberts (9.850), Jada Rondeau (9.850)

EMU’s lowest score counting toward NQS is a 195.150, but since it’s a road score, the Eagles won’t get a chance to replace it until next week. The sub-196 season high, however, doesn’t bode well for their chances of moving into the top 28, and instead the goal should be to remain in regionals qualification position. Jada Rondeau highlights several individuals who could qualify.

No. 30 Kent State

NQS 195.675
Season high 196.375
Score to replace this weekend 195.850
NQS with season high this weekend 195.806 (26th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Rachel Decavitch (38.894)

Bars: Rachel Decavitch (9.856), Jade Brown (9.844)

Beam: Abby Fletcher (9.856)

Floor: Abby Fletcher (9.900), Jade Brown (9.863), Rachel Decavitch (9.856), Karlie Franz (9.850), Toshi Richard (9.831)

Similar to EMU, Kent State’s lowest counting score—194.825—was scored on the road, so the Golden Flashes will have to wait another week for an opportunity to replace it. However, they have more room to grow with their 196.375 season high and are more likely to move into the top 28 over their three remaining meets.

No. 31 Maryland

NQS 195.663
Season high 196.275
Score to replace this weekend 195.300
NQS with season high this weekend 195.906 (25th)
Road meets remaining 1
Home meets remaining 2

All Around: Audrey Barber (39.356), Emma Silberman (39.056)

Vault: Alexsis Rubio (9.863), Audrey Barber (9.844), Collea Burgess (9.844), Reese Mcclure (9.831)

Bars: Audrey Barber (9.900), Aleka Tsiknias (9.850), Emma Silberman (9.838)

Beam: Reese Mcclure (9.869), Audrey Barber (9.831)

Floor: Sabriyya Rouse (9.869), Audrey Barber (9.850), Collea Burgess (9.844)

Maryland has two scores in the low 195s to replace, with the first opportunity coming at a home meet Wednesday afternoon. Similar to Kent State, the Terps have some wiggle room with their 196.275 season high—if they repeat that score twice more, they could avoid the play-in round. However, low performances, particularly following the injury to Emma Silberman, could also keep them out of regionals entirely. For individuals, Audrey Barber has already locked up a spot as an all around qualifier (if Maryland ends up outside of the top 28), and several others would join her on individual events. Note that we are unsure if Silberman would be replaced in individual qualification due to her injury if it turns out to be season-ending.

No. 32 Towson

NQS 195.488
Season high 196.150
Score to replace this weekend 194.475 / 195.175 (double meet weekend)
NQS with season high this weekend 196.150 (22nd)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 2

All Around: Lauren Bolen (39.025), Camille Vitoff (38.738)

Vault: Camille Vitoff (9.856), Lauren Bolen (9.844), Jenna Weitz (9.806)

Bars: Allison Zuhlke (9.856), Camille Vitoff (9.838), Grace Vaillancourt (9.819)

Beam: Emerson Hurst (9.869), Jenna Weitz (9.844)

Floor: Amy Stewart (9.856), Nikki Borkowski (9.850), Jenna Wietz (9.838)

Towson still has five meets remaining for a total of 13 regular season meets overall (what pandemic?), so it’s in an excellent position to move up the rankings. Even if the Tigers still find themselves in a play-in round, several gymnasts will certainly qualify to regionals as individuals.

No. 33 North Carolina

NQS 195.338
Season high 195.600
Score to replace this weekend 195.200
NQS with season high this weekend 195.438 (33rd)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Brianna Greenlow (38.913), Elizabeth Culton (39.275 high)

Vault: Hallie Thompson (9.819), Drew Aldridge (9.813)

Bars: Elizabeth Culton (9.850)

Beam: Elizabeth Culton (9.944), Hannah Nam (9.825), Hallie Thompson (9.825)

Floor: Elizabeth Culton (9.831)

UNC is one of the teams whose scores are closely bunched together in the chart at the top of this article, so the Tar Heels are going to have to start setting some new season highs or they could find themselves on the outside looking in—again. For individuals, Elizabeth Culton doesn’t have an NQS in the all around yet but could still qualify on several events even without it.

No. 34 Ball State

NQS 195.306
Season high 195.975
Score to replace this weekend 194.425
NQS with season high this weekend 195.694 (29th)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 0

Vault: Victoria Henry (9.831), Arden Hudson (9.813)

Bars: Grace Evans (9.863), Megan Teter (9.831)

Beam: Arden Hudson (9.838)

Floor: Claudia Goyco (9.863), Megan Teter (9.856)

Ball State’s counting NQS scores are very spaced out: 195.975, 195.55, 195.275 and 194.425, so with three road meets remaining, the Cardinals could make a lot of improvements to their total if they compete at the top of their game. Their best chances at individual qualifiers lie in Grace Evans, Claudia Goyco and Megan Teter.

No. 35 Nebraska

NQS 195.225
Season high 195.350
Score to replace this weekend 195.100
NQS with season high this weekend 195.288 (35th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Chloe Lorange (38.813)

Vault: Anika Dujakovich (9.85)

Bars: Kinsey Davis (9.869), Kynsee Roby (9.863)

Beam: Kynsee Roby (9.894), Kaitlyn Higgins (9.869), Kathryn Thaler (9.869), Chloe Lorange (9.825)

Floor: Kylie Piringer (9.875), Makayla Curtis (9.838)

Nebraska is another team whose counting NQS scores are bunched closely together, ranging from 195.100 to 195.350; with only three meets left, their chances of staying in the top 36 are looking slim. However, several individuals will likely qualify to regionals, highlighted by Kynsee Roby on two events.

No. 36 West Virginia

NQS 195.175
Season high 195.400
Score to replace this weekend 194.775
NQS with season high this weekend 195.331 (34th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 2

Beam: McKenna Linnen (9.813)

Floor: Kendra Combs (9.875), Emily Holmes-Hackerd (9.856)

A top 28 berth is likely out of reach for WVU, but with four meets left the Mountaineers could solidify their place in the top 36 if they compete at their best. Their best chances to qualify individuals will come on floor, with both Kendra Combs and Emily Holmes-Hackerd in the mix.

No. 37 Arizona

NQS 195.088
Season high 195.650
Score to replace this weekend 194.750
NQS with season high this weekend 195.313 (34th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

Vault: Malia Hargrove (9.838)

Bars: Elena Deets (9.831)

Beam: Jessica Castles (9.875)

Floor: Malia Hargrove (9.838), Elena Deets (9.831)

While Arizona is currently ranked too low to make regionals, the Wildcats have a good opportunity to move into qualification position with two sub-195 scores to drop and a 195.650 season high. Jessica Castles (beam) is the most likely individual qualifier, but Malia Hargrove and Elena Deets could also move into qualifying position with high scores in the remaining meets.

No. 38 New Hampshire

NQS 194.981
Season high 195.350
Score to replace this weekend 194.375
NQS with season high this weekend 195.225 (35th)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Kylie Gorgenyi (38.750)

Vault: Kylie Gorgenyi (9.844)

Bars: Kylie Gorgenyi (9.856), Lauren Diggan (9.819)

Beam: Robyn Kelley (9.863), Hailey Lui (9.856), Alyssa Worthington (9.831)

Floor: Robyn Kelley (9.875)

New Hampshire has one low score to drop, but the remaining counting NQS numbers are bunched fairly close together, so they will still need some higher scores to qualify to regionals. Of the individuals, Kylie Gorgenyi and Robyn Kelley are both in position to qualify on multiple events, with Hailey Lui also looking likely on beam.

No. 39 Temple

NQS 194.825
Season high 195.100
Score to replace this weekend 194.525 / 195.100 (double meet weekend)
NQS with season high this weekend 194.969 (39th)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 2

All Around: Ariana Castrence (39.075 high)

Vault: Julianna Roland (9.831), Ariana Castrence (9.825)

Beam: Brooke Donabedian (9.813)

Floor: Faith Leary (9.875), Julianna Roland (9.850), Nikki Borkowski (9.850)

Temple is in a worse position than New Hampshire with a lower season high and scores more bunched together, but the Owls have five meets remaining to UNH’s three. It’ll be difficult to qualify to regionals from this position, but if they can take advantage of their double meet weekends and post multiple season-high scores, it’s possible. Ariana Castrence has only competed all around twice this season, but she’ll have a good chance at qualifying if she competes all four events in at least two of the remaining meets. Faith Leary is a likely qualifier on floor, with Julianna Roland and Nikki Borkowski also being possible qualifiers.

No. 40 Rutgers

NQS 194.819
Season high 195.975
Score to replace this weekend 194.025 / 194.050 (double meet weekend)
NQS with season high this weekend 195.788 (26th)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Hannah Joyner (39.269), Belle Huang (39.106)

Vault: Hannah Joyner (9.831), Belle Huang (9.813)

Beam: Belle Huang (9.888), Hannah Joyner (9.882), Kiera Doherty-Horwitz (9.819)

Floor: Belle Huang (9.869)

Rutgers is in prime position to move up the rankings this week with two low 194 scores to drop and a double meet weekend. Even scoring two 195s would move the Scarlet Knights up to 35th in the current rankings. Meanwhile, Hannah Joyner and Belle Huang are both likely to qualify as individuals in the all around.

No. 41 Northern Illinois

NQS 194.675
Season high 194.825
Score to replace this weekend 194.250 / 194.825 (double meet weekend)
NQS with season high this weekend 194.819 (40th)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Tara Kofmehl (39.113)

Bars: Natalie Hamp (9.856), Brookelyn Sears (9.838)

Beam: Mia Lord (9.838)

Floor: Tara Kofmehl (9.894), Nicolette DiPrisco (9.838)

NIU’s chances at regionals are slim, with its NQS numbers all bunched closely together and a sub-195 season high. However, Tara Kofmehl is a likely individual qualifier in the all around, and Natalie Hamp also has a good chance on bars.

No. 42 Pittsburgh

NQS 194.538
Season high 195.700
Score to replace this weekend 194.525
NQS with season high this weekend 194.831 (39th)
Road meets remaining 1
Home meets remaining 3

Bars: Katrina Coca (9.881), Katie Chamberlain (9.863)

Beam: Lauren Beckwith (9.838), Katie Chamberlain (9.825)

Pitt is still counting two load road scores—193.875 and 194.050—and only has one away meet left on March 14. This leaves the Panthers unlikely to qualify to regionals as a team, but Katrina Coca and Katie Chamberlain are both in a good position to qualify on bars.

No. 43 SEMO

NQS 194.425
Season high 195.050
Score to replace this weekend N/A (bye week)
NQS with season high this weekend N/A
Road meets remaining 1
Home meets remaining 1

All Around: Dahlia Solorzano-Caruso (39.038)

Vault: Dahlia Solorzano-Caruso (9.813)

Beam: Anna Kaziska (9.844)

Floor: Anna Kaziska (9.869), Dhalia Solorzano-Caruso (9.831)

Unfortunately for SEMO, there are only two meets left in the regular season, so its chances of qualifying to regionals are minimal. However, Dahlia Solorzano-Caruso will likely be a qualifier in the all around and Anna Kaziska could join her on two events.

No. 44 Texas Woman’s

NQS 194.394
Season high 195.125
Score to replace this weekend 193.650
NQS with season high this weekend 194.763 (41st)
Road meets remaining 2
Home meets remaining 1

Vault: Daisy Woodring (9.825)

Floor: Isabel Goyco (9.838), Madeline Gose (9.831)

TWU has similar numbers to SEMO, but with three meets remaining and a higher season high, they have a slightly higher chance of moving into regionals qualifying position.

No. 45 Lindenwood

NQS 194.288
Season high 195.250
Score to replace this weekend 193.650
NQS with season high this weekend 194.763 (41st)
Road meets remaining 3
Home meets remaining 0

Vault: Courtney Mitchell (9.85), Aleah Leman (9.838), Kyndall Baze (9.825)

Lindenwood is currently counting a 193.000 and 193.900, both road scores, with three away meets remaining. The other two counting scores are both above 195.000. With season-high performances in all three remaining meets, there could possibly be a route to regionals qualification, but it’s pretty unlikely and would also depend on what higher-ranked teams do as well. However, the Lions are in good position to qualify multiple gymnasts on vault.

Michigan State

MSU’s two scores so far are a 195.775 home score and a 194.500 away score, and the Spartans currently have two road meets scheduled (after a bye week this weekend). Could they qualify to regionals? Certainly, but they haven’t competed since Feb. 7 and would need two hit meets to do so. With an NQS, Baleigh Garcia and Nyah Smith would both be in contention for all around qualification—Lea Mitchell unfortunately scored a 38.175 that she wouldn’t be able to drop at this point—and Delanie Harkness could also be a possibility on bars.

Other Individuals

Washington has two individuals in strong contention for regionals qualification: Geneva Thompson on vault (9.850) and bars (9.844) and Amara Cunningham on vault (9.825) and floor (9.894).

Illinois State’s Angelica Labat could qualify in the all around (38.956) while Cameron Topp is in contention on floor (9.831).

Air Force has two individuals in contention: Daija Stevenson in the all around (38.850) and Briona Carswell on beam (9.819).

Among individuals who don’t have an NQS yet, the highlight is LIU’s Mara Titarsolej, who has scored a 9.925 and a 9.900 on bars. George Washington also has several gymnasts who could qualify as individuals, including Deja Chambliss (9.875 high on vault and 9.900 on floor), Hannah Cohen (9.85 high on beam) and Kendall Whitman (9.875 high on vault and 9.950 on floor).

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Article by Jenna King

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