2018 NCAA Raleigh Regional Preview

It’s finally that time of the year! We know where each of the top 36 teams in the country will travel to compete for a chance at advancing to nationals. In the days leading up to the championships, we’ll preview and analyze each of the six regionals, discussing which teams have a chance of moving on and which individual could qualify as well. Next up is the Raleigh regional, featuring No. 2 LSU, No. 11 Nebraska, No. 14 Oregon State, No. 19 George Washington, No. 20 N.C. State and No. 31 Maryland.

Don’t forget to enter your postseason predictions in the 2018 NCAA Gym Bracket Challenge! The deadline for submissions is Friday, April 6 at 7 p.m. ET.

Rank Team RQS Average High Score Starting Event
2 LSU 197.890 197.587 198.175 Floor
11 Nebraska 196.815 196.356 197.100 Beam
14 Oregon State 196.780 196.580 197.300 Bye Before Floor
19 George Washington 196.460 195.921 196.875 Bye Before Bars
20 N.C. State 196.440 195.833 196.800 Bars
31 Maryland 195.930 195.411 196.575 Vault

This regional is going to be fascinating. LSU is the only team that is likely to advance to nationals out of Raleigh. Everything else here is up in the air. The Tigers are the only team coming to N.C. State capable of scoring a 198, and their average is higher—by more than half a point—than any other team’s season high. They have proved that they can score well here, even without some of their star power: Last time LSU was in Raleigh (March 9) it rested some of its highest scoring routines and still scored a huge 197.575, a number no other team in the field is likely to reach. LSU didn’t have an extremely strong SEC championship, but it was by no means bad: The Tigers still came away with the conference title. They are the best bars squad in the country, and even on their weakest event, vault, they come in at No. 5. To score the massive total they are capable of, the Tigers need hits from the likes of Ruby Harrold, who has had an on and off season, and Julianna Cannamela, who has missed her Yurchenko 1.5 several times and went back to the Yurchenko full for SECs. Another question is Myia Hambrick on floor. She is capable of putting up LSU’s highest score there but has missed in her last three of four routines. If she hits, she can provide a boost to the team total. LSU should take this meet comfortably even counting a fall, though, so those hits would simply add to the total and provide the Tigers with a confidence boost going into nationals. To not advance, this meet would need to be an absolute disaster, something that is very unlikely—LSU’s low score all year is a 197.150, a total only Oregon State has topped, and the Beavers only did so once and at home.

The second qualifying spot here could realistically go to any of the five remaining teams, though Maryland might be more of a long shot. The strongest contenders are Nebraska and Oregon State, but George Washington and N.C. State are not as far behind as the rankings imply. There are just too many variables for the Huskers and the Beavers to say that either team is a favorite, and those variables open the door for lower ranked teams. Granted, both Nebraska and Oregon State would have to falter for the other teams to break through, but it wouldn’t be outrageous if it were to happen.

For the Huskers, it has been an up and down season, though both of their big podium meets have gone well. Sierra Hassel has been out of her regular beam and floor lineup spots due to an injury suffered during floor at Florida on March 9, and Megan Schweihofer had a scary fall in practice the week before Big Tens. She was able to come back to take the conference all around title, but the Huskers finished second from the early session after a meltdown during Big Fives (for a 194.900) that kept them from the higher-scoring second session. That is a lot of late-season drama. Nebraska is a solidly high-196 to low-197 team, with a high away total of 196.950. That score is higher than Oregon State’s away high but does open the door. Beam can be a problem, especially without Hassel. Sienna Crouse has a tendency to fall in the second spot, and that can send the entire rotation down a bad path. The Huskers start on beam, so pay attention to their first rotation total. Bars and floor are highlights: Nebraska has the ability to rally back in the last rotation, especially if Crouse and Houchin hit bars in the final two lineup spots. Nebraska always seems to sneak into nationals, even when it is unlikely and has qualified in seven of the last ten years, but this year is a big test.

Oregon State has been a bit of a home score team this year. Of the Beavers’ highest scores, only one is away. That said, they have consistently scored in the mid-196s away all season and definitely have the potential to catch Nebraska, especially if the Huskers have another off day. After starting on a bye, the Beavers move to their best event in floor where they are ranked No. 7. Isis Lowery and Kaitlyn Yanish provide a huge one-two punch at the end of the lineup. Keep an eye on rotation three, though: Vault is a big question. Half of the lineup often falls into the 9.700s, which is dangerous. It’s a good sign for Oregon State if those early vaults are trending toward the 9.800s. Either one of Oregon State and Nebraska can score higher on any given day: This battle will be about mental focus and details. Watch landings, early lineup scores, lines and precision. If both teams are hitting, it is those things that will make the difference. Nebraska’s RQS outscores Oregon State’s by 0.035, but the Beavers outscore the Huskers in average by 0.224 and season high by 0.200. The Huskers’ away season high tops the Beavers’ by 0.100. This will be very close.

Outscoring both Nebraska and Oregon State is a big challenge for George Washington and N.C. State, but it is not out of the question. GW sat comfortably in the mid-196s for much of the season, though it has struggled in each of its last two outings, putting up 195s. Neither of those performances were meltdowns, but rocky bar rotations held the team down. Barring a total disaster for both Nebraska and Oregon State, a 195 will not advance to nationals. Keep an eye on the Colonials in rotation two: After a bye, they will start on bars. With a big hit, they’ll be off to a good start moving into their best two, vault and floor. However, with a messy first rotation, it will be hard for the team to come back. On its best days, GW is led by Camille Drouin-Allaire and Jillian Winstanley. If both are hitting big numbers, keep a close eye on this team, especially if the Huskers and Beavers are sloppy.

N.C. State has had a bit of a Cinderella season under first year head coach Kim Landrus. The Wolfpack has been at its best on the road, so home advantage may not play a huge role. They have been a consistently low-196 team through most of the season, which won’t be enough to top the higher-ranked teams on their best days. However, the Wolfpack is fresh off of an EAGL championship upset win, a huge confidence boost coming into regionals and proof that this team can top conference foe George Washington. Both Nebraska and Oregon State have scored lower than N.C. State’s high score this year, so while it is a bit of a long shot to say the Wolfpack could advance, it is in the realm of possibility. N.C. State’s EAGL domination was led by strong vault and floor lineups, as well as all arounders Drew Grantham and Chelsea Knight. The Wolfpack starts on bars, its weakest event and will end on a bye, during which it will wait to see if it has done enough.

Maryland is unlikely to upset enough teams to advance here, but the Terps are a solid squad that can keep things interesting. They haven’t scored an away 196 this year but have stayed in the high-195s and are a 196-capable team. Consistency on big stages, especially on beam, has been a problem. That said, the Terps took advantage of a miss from Nebraska at Big Fives to qualify into the night session of the conference championship for the first time since joining the conference in 2015—that should be a big confidence boost. The Terps are led by underclassmen: Freshman Audrey Barber will get to close out the team’s meet in the final rotation with her big floor routine, highlighted by a massive full-in. Alecia Farina is a strong all arounder and leader, and Kirsten Peterman is a consistent performer who takes many of the leadoff spots. If all three are hitting, the Terps should put up a strong total. This is the Terps’ first regionals appearance since 2015, a big win in and of itself for a team that is on the rise.

Individuals

Vault Bars Beam Floor All Around
Khazia Hislop (UNC – rotating with NCSU) Tyra McKellar (Towson – rotating with NCSU) Khazia Hislop (UNC – rotating with NCSU) Khazia Hislop (UNC – rotating with NCSU) Morgan Lane (UNC – rotating with LSU)
Madison Nettles (UNC – Rotating with MD) Kaitlynn Hedelund (UNC – rotating with MD) Gabriella Yarussi (Towson – rotating with MD) Mikayla Robinson (UNC – rotating with MD) Mary Elle Arduino (Towson – rotating with OSU)
(Alt) Cortni Baker (Towson) (Alt) Tess Zientek (Towson) (Alt) Alexis Allen (UNC) (Alt) Madison Nettles (UNC) Katie Waldman (W&M – rotating with Neb.)
Taylor White (W&M – rotating with GW)
(Alt) Caroline Caponi (W&M)

To advance to nationals as an individual requires either winning an event or being one of the two top all arounders on a non-advancing team. Winning an event is a huge challenge here, since LSU has such strong performers on all four, so keep in mind that a routine will need to be stellar to top the podium; floor and bars will be the most challenging events.

If April 7th exists in the Upside Down and LSU doesn’t advance, expect the Tigers to dominate individual qualifiers. Myia Hambrick, Kennedi Edney and recently crowned SEC Gymnast of the Year Sarah Finnegan would be likely to battle for the two all arounder spots, and the gymnast who didn’t qualify for the all around would be a contender on many if not all four events. Sarah Finnegan and Lexie Priessman would also likely challenge for the bars title, and on her best days, Ruby Harrold could take vault.

Should Nebraska miss nationals, the Huskers would also likely send several individuals. Megan Schweihofer is a big all around threat, and Crouse could challenge for the all around or vault, bars and floor. Taylor Houchin has the ability for a huge bars total and could qualify on vault if she sticks her Yurchenko 1.5, which she has done once this year since adding the event back in March. If Oregon State misses, watch scores from Yanish and Lowery on floor, as well as Maela Lazaro on beam.

If the most likely scenario occurs (LSU and Nebraska advance), the all around field will be very open. Oregon State has strong but not stellar all aroudners in Sabrina Gill and McKenna Singley, who can score in the low 39s. That said, GW’s Winstanley and Drouin-Allaire both have slightly higher ceilings and averages, as does N.C. State’s Knight. Drouin-Allaire is also a threat on floor and vault on her best days, and Winstanley could challenge for beam, as could GW’s Elizabeth Pfeiler with her best hit. Knight is capable of big vault, beam and floor scores and is a threat on each.

Maryland’s best hope comes from Barber, who could qualify in the all around on her best day, especially if some of the other teams’ stars falter. Farina is also capable of big numbers on floor and could find herself nearing the top of the podium there, though winning floor will be a big challenge at this meet.

Qualifying to nationals while competing at regionals as an individual is very difficult. Without the usual team atmosphere, as well as some leotard bonus, it is a big ask to win an event or be top two all around, but it does happen. UNC’s Morgan Lane is absolutely in the all around picture, especially if LSU and Nebraska  are the teams to advance. She has missed qualifying to nationals each of the last three years and is a senior, so watch closely to see if she can cap her career with her first nationals appearance. Lane rotates with LSU; which team an individual rotates with doesn’t seem to provide much of a bonus, but LSU is such a powerhouse that it could benefit Lane. She is a threat on beam as well. UNC has another opportunity in Khazia Hislop, who is having a dream season. She could take the floor title, where she is one of the strongest performers in the country and is ranked No. 11 nationally. Keep in mind that she would need to outscore or tie Hambrick, Finnegan and Schweihofer, though, all of whom are ranked ahead of her.

For the competitors from Towson and William and Mary, qualifying to regionals and getting to compete on this stage is a huge accomplishment. Mary Elle Arduino could stun the field and take beam, but that is a big task.

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Article by Emily Minehart

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